Abstract: In the stability design of a high-power laser facility, the simulation results are important references, and the reliability of the simulation results is important. In order to evaluate the reliability of the stability analysis results, the maximum displacement response of Shenguang-Ⅲ chamber is predicted based on uncertainty quantification and propagation methods, and the model form error and the prediction methods in the modern model verification and validation (VV). The quadratic polynomial response surface model is regarded as the metal model to improve the efficiency on the parameter propagating and sensitivity analyzing. The sensitivity analysis result shows that the modal damping ratios are more important than the mechanical parameters of the concrete. The stability prediction result of quantity of interest shows that the stability design margin of Shenguang-Ⅲ chamber is more than 7 times, which validates that the stability design of Shenguang-Ⅲ chamber is reliable enough.