系统在HEMP作用下易损性评估方法有效性验证

Effectiveness validation of assessment methods for systems vulnerability under HEMP

  • 摘要: 系统在高空电磁脉冲(HEMP)作用下易损性评估是电磁脉冲效应领域具有挑战性的课题,目前尚未建立统一的评估方法。系统设计方、使用方和试验方三个不同的视角,存在不同的评判准则,因此会导致评估结果有较大的差异。评估所需的基础数据具有多源性,包括经验数据、试验数据、计算数据或专家主观估计数据,因此评估数据均存在较大不确定性。融合上述主客观多方面信息得到的评估结果的可信性需要验证。但是,实践中全系统试验或计算往往成本高、周期长甚至不具可操作性,例如对通信、电力等基础设施的HEMP易损性的评估,所以评估结果可信性验证是一个难题。以智能控制系统HEMP易损性评估为例,尝试在系统使用方、设计方和试验方三种不同视角下,采用各自领域所擅长的方法给出评估结果,并将结果进行比对,从而验证评估方法的有效性以及不同方法的优点、缺点和适用性。

     

    Abstract:
    Background
    As the most challenging issue in the field of the electromagnetic pulse effects, no uniform method of the system vulnerability assessment against the high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) has been established. The system design, use and test organizations stand on the different perspectives and the different criteria, which lead to the severe discrepancy in the assessment results. On the other hand, the basic data come from several sources, such as the experience, testing, computation or, subjective judgements, and there is great uncertainty in these data. So the creditability of the assessment conclusions is vital to be validated from the objective and subjective information. However, the high cost and long duration will prohibit the conduct of the whole system test or computation, such as the communication and power infrastructures. Thus the assessment validation is a hard subject.
    Purpose
    In this paper, vulnerability the of a computer control system to HEMP is taken as an illustration to validate the effectiveness of different assessment methods.
    Methods
    Here, three approaches relatively from the fields of the system use, design and test (i.e. risk analysis, electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) analysis and Bayesian networks (BN)) are adopted and independently evaluate the HEMP susceptibility of the item under test (IUT).
    Results
    Three evaluation results indicate that the assessment methods are effective despite their different thoughts, emphasizes and knowledge fields.
    Conclusions
    The BN method can preferably respond to the inherent characteristic of HEMP effect assessments, such as the conductivity, uncertainty, synthesis and subjectiveness, so the BN method is potentially promising in the practices.

     

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