智能算法对核爆炸光辐射损伤面积预测及源项反演

Intelligent algorithm for predicting light radiation damage areas and inverting source parameters in nuclear explosion

  • 摘要: 光辐射是核爆炸能量耗散的主要形式,对生态环境和人类社会具有深远影响。研究其特性、传播规律和能量分布,可为核爆炸毁伤效应评估与防护提供重要依据。引入Kolmogorov-Arnold网络(KAN),构建了可解释的核爆炸光辐射损伤面积预测模型,同时采用多种优化算法反演出核爆炸的源项参数。首先,基于核爆炸火球理论构建光辐射模型,结合ArcGIS Pro软件实现真实地图下光辐射的热能分布,并根据生物的烧伤伤情分级标准生成爆炸当量、爆炸高度与损伤面积之间的数据集。其次,利用KAN网络进行数据集预测,凭借其独特的可解释性优势获得显式预测公式。再次,采用门控循环单元、极限学习机和随机森林等8种算法对比预测结果,评估KAN的性能。最后,构建核爆炸光辐射模型损失函数,通过多种优化算法获得爆炸当量、爆炸高度和爆心位置等源项信息。本研究实现了对核爆炸光辐射损伤效应的快速预测和精准反演,有助于提高应急响应效率并辅助防护决策。

     

    Abstract:
    Background
    Light radiation, the primary mode of energy dissipation in nuclear explosions, profoundly impacts both the ecological environment and human society. A thorough understanding of its characteristics, propagation dynamics, and energy distribution is therefore essential for evaluating and protecting against nuclear explosion damage effects.
    Purpose
    This study introduces the Kolmogorov-Arnold network (KAN) to construct an interpretable model for predicting the area of light radiation damage. The model utilizes multiple optimization algorithms to invert key source term parameters, namely the explosion yield, height of explosion, and explosion location.
    Methods
    Based on the theory of nuclear explosion fireballs, a light radiation model was developed and integrated with ArcGIS Pro software to visualize thermal energy distribution on real-world maps. A dataset correlating explosion yield and height with damage area was then generated, quantified according to established standards for biological burn injuries. The KAN was trained on this dataset, leveraging its unique advantage of providing explicit, interpretable formulas for prediction. To validate its efficacy, the KAN's performance was benchmarked against eight other algorithms, including Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), and Random Forest (RF). A loss function was constructed for the radiation model to facilitate the inversion of source term parameters via multiple optimization algorithms.
    Results
    The results demonstrate that the KAN model achieves high prediction accuracy while yielding an interpretable formula for the damage area. Furthermore, both the genetic algorithm and the Hippopotamus optimization algorithm successfully inverted the nuclear source term parameters with high fidelity.
    Conclusions
    This methodology facilitates both the rapid prediction of damage effects and the accurate inversion of source parameters, thereby enhancing emergency response efficiency and aiding in strategic protective decision-making.

     

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