Effectiveness validation of assessment methods of HEMP vulnerability to systems
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摘要: 系统在高空电磁脉冲（HEMP）作用下易损性评估是电磁脉冲效应领域具有挑战性的课题，目前尚未建立统一的评估方法。系统设计方、使用方和试验方三个不同的视角，存在不同的评判准则，因此会导致评估结果有较大的差异。其次，评估所需的基础数据具有多源性，包括经验数据、试验数据、计算数据或专家主观估计数据，因此评估数据均存在较大不确定性。融合上述主客观多方面信息得到的评估结果的可信性需要验证。但是，实践中全系统试验或计算往往成本高、周期长甚至不具可操作性，例如对通信、电力等基础设施的HEMP易损性的评估，所以评估结果可信性验证是一个难题。本文以智能控制系统HEMP易损性评估为例，尝试在系统使用方、设计方和试验方三种不同视角下，采用各自领域所擅长的方法给出评估结果，并将结果进行比对，从而验证评估方法的有效性以及不同方法的优点、缺点和适用性。Abstract:
Background As the most challenging issue in the field of the electromagnetic pulse effects, no uniform method of the system vulnerability assessment against the high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) has been established. The system design, use and test organizations stand on the different perspectives and the different criteria, which lead to the severe discrepancy in the assessment results. On the other hand, the basic data come from several sources, such as the experiential, testing, computation or the subjective judgements, and there is great uncertainty in these data. So the creditability of the assessment conclusions is vital to be validated from the objective and subjective information. However, too high cost and too long term will prohibit the conduct of the whole system test or computation, such as the communication and power infrastructures. Thus the assessment validation is a hard subject.Purpose In this paper, the computer control system vulnerability for HEMP is taken as an illustration to validate the effectiveness of different assessment methods.Methods Here three approaches relatively from the fields of the system use, design and test, i.e. The risk analysis, electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) analysis and the Bayesian networks (BN) are adopted and independently evaluate the HEMP susceptibility of the item under test (IUT).Results Three evaluation results indicate that the assessment methods are effective in despite of different thoughts, emphasizes and knowledge fields.Conclusions The BN method can preferably respond to the inherent characteristic of HEMP effect assessments, such as the conductivity, uncertainty, synthesis and subjectiveness, so the BN method is potentially promising in the practices. -
图 4 智能控制系统HEMP易损性BN模型
Figure 4. BN Model of HEMP Vulnerability of Computer Control System
表 1 智能控制系统脉冲电流注入试验中的效应
Table 1. Effects of computor control system under test of PCI
module PCI Point thresholds fault phenomenon module 3244 equipment cable 11.2，9.4 lights of module 3244 flickered; network broke down.module 3101 sensor line 10.0，11.7，12.3 lights of module 3244 and3101 flickered; network broke down.module 3302 sensor line 5.3，4.9，5.5 computer indicated 13.8，but sensor indicated 20.5.this fault repeated 3 times. 6.0，6.1 computer indicated -0.25 ×10−6，but sensor indicated 0.0. 2.12，2.36，4.1，4.3，
5.9，6.3，the numbers indicated by computer are different from the sensors. 3.8，6.0，17.4 the sensors broke down. module 3301 power line 13.8，14.3，14.9 lights of module 3244 and3101 flickered, and the control function of computer is invalidated.module 3506 network line 15.2，20.1，6.2 the discharge occurred at the terminals of the line connected with network modules. 
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表 2 模块失效概率表
Table 2. Fault probabilities of modules
module PIC Point $ {\text{N}}(\mu ,\sigma ) $ of threshold f(x) $ {\text{N}}(\mu ,\sigma ) $ of stress g(y) fault probability/% module 3244 equipment cable (10.3, 0.3) (200, 66.7) 99.64 module 3101 sensor line (11.2, 0.4) (20, 6.7) 90.37 module 3302 sensor line (9.8, 2.5) (20, 6.7) 92.18 module 3301 power line (14.4, 0.2) (200, 66.7) 99.60 module 3506 network line (13.2, 2.3) (200, 66.7) 99.61
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表 3 设备失效概率与整系统失效概率
Table 3. Fault probabilities of subsystems and whole system
subsystem composition of subsystem with
modules (⊕ means logic OR)fault Probability of subsystem
with logic OR of modulesfault probability of system with
logic OR of subsystemsenvironment sensing 3244 ⊕3101 ⊕3101 ⊕3506 1 1 ventilator control 3302 ⊕3302 ⊕3506 1 energy control 3244 ⊕3101 ⊕3101 ⊕3506 1 water control 3244 ⊕3506 ⊕3301 1
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