Credibility assessment of marine weather radar electromagnetic simulation models under sea clutter and electromagnetic interference
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摘要: 船用气象雷达在远海作业时，除受海杂波影响外，还需面对同频电台、导航雷达及卫星通信等多源耦合电磁干扰，导致传统杂波-目标模型可信度显著下降。提出“杂波-干扰-目标”三维耦合场景下的可信度评估框架，首先，以混合分布模型定义杂波-干扰联合统计特性；然后，构建“时-频-空”三域特征空间，利用多维动态时间规整度量仿真与实测差异；最后，融合杂波、干扰、目标及系统链路误差，输出带不确定性区间的可信度，为复杂电磁环境下仿真模型在线校准与资源调度提供了可量化依据。Abstract:
Background Marine weather radars play a crucial role in ensuring maritime navigation safety.However,when operating in open-ocean environments,radar performance is significantly degraded by sea clutter and dense,multi-source electromagnetic interference (EMI) from co-frequency radios,navigation radars,and satellite communication systems.These coupled factors lead to substantial uncertainty in the credibility of conventional clutter-target simulation models.Purpose This study aims to develop and validate a comprehensive credibility assessment framework for marine weather radar electromagnetic simulation models under complex “clutter-interference-target”coupling environments,providing a quantitative basis for model validation and online calibration.Methods A mixed-distribution model was employed to describe the joint statistical properties of sea clutter and EMI.A tri-domain feature space (time-frequency-space) was constructed,and multidimensional dynamic time warping (MD-DTW) was used to quantify discrepancies between simulated and measured signals.Finally,a Bayesian network integrated statistical and feature-level results to yield system-level credibility with uncertainty bounds.Results Monte Carlo simulations with 500 iterations and bootstrap estimation demonstrated that the proposed method achieves an average credibility of 0.82 at the statistical level,0.88 at the feature level,and 0.86 at the system level.Compared with traditional methods that ignore EMI,the framework improves credibility by approximately 11%.Conclusions The proposed three-tier“distribution–feature–system”framework enables full-chain,multi-dimensional quantification of model credibility under sea clutter and EMI coupling.This approach enhances the reliability of radar performance assessment in complex electromagnetic environments and provides a rigorous basis for adaptive calibration and resource management. -
图 1 “分布-特征-系统”的可信度评估框架
Figure 1. Reliability evaluation framework of "distribution-feature-system"
图 3 耦合环境下调查船模型示意图
Figure 3. Schematic of the survey ship model under coupled environment
图 4 调查船RCS耦合模型与测试值对比
Figure 4. Comparison of the RCS coupling model of the survey vessel with the test values
图 6 可信度对分布尾指数的敏感性曲线
Figure 6. Sensitivity Curve of Credibility to Distribution Tail Index
表 1 各层级可信度计算结果
Table 1. Calculation results of each level of credibility
name credibility statistical hierarchy 0.82 feature hierarchy 0.88 system hierarchy 0.86 
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表 2 各方法量化评估结果对比
Table 2. Comparison of quantitative evaluation results of various methods
evaluation methodology credibility 95% confidence interval this article method 0.86 [0.83,0.89] traditional method (only considering sea clutter) 0.75 [0.72,0.78] single feature method (frequency domain only) 0.77 [0.74,0.80]
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